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01/27/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A year ago, Sterling Moore was taking in the Super Bowl as a spectator, perched way up in the rafters of spacious Cowboys Stadium as a college senior at nearby Southern Methodist University.
The rookie cornerback will have a far better view of this year's game, and a well-deserved upgrade to boot after coming up with perhaps the most important play of the New England Patriots' nail-biting win in the AFC Championship.
Though Baltimore kicker Billy Cundiff's stunning miss of a short field goal attempt in the closing seconds may forever stand as the signature moment of the Ravens' 23-20 loss to the Patriots, Moore's heads-up negation of a would-be touchdown pass shortly prior to Cundiff's shank was equally vital to New England earning a trip to Indianapolis for Super Bowl XLVI. The previously- unknown 21-year-old smartly jarred the ball out of the arms of Baltimore receiver Lee Evans in the end zone with 22 seconds left, preserving the Pats' tenuous three-point advantage and gaining a surge of instant notoriety in the process.
Moore, just one moth removed from toiling on New England's practice squad, also broke up a pass on the ensuing play that would have given the Ravens a first down and forced Cundiff to be sent out for his now-famous blunder.
"When you think about it, that play is our season," said Patriots safety James Ihedigbo. "That's everything we worked for right there and [Moore] knocks that ball out of the Lee Evans' hands and comes back again and makes another play on third down. He played amazing, can't say enough about that guy."
While a defense universally regarded as the soft underbelly of the offensively- abundant AFC champions rising to the rescue in such a critical spot seems tinged in irony, having an unproven commodity like Moore emerge as a hero fits in perfectly with a unit that's gotten by with no-names and misfits all throughout the Patriots' successful 2011 run.
Fellow cornerback Kyle Arrington, himself an undrafted free agent who was cut by both Philadelphia and Tampa Bay before finding a home among New England's rag-tag bunch in 2009, tied for the NFL lead with seven interceptions this season. Outside linebacker Rob Ninkovich, a two-year starter and one of the defense's smartest and most versatile members, was also released by two other organizations. A front line that kept Ravens All-Pro running back Ray Rice squarely under wraps in the AFC title game contains a seventh-round draft pick (Brandon Deaderick) and a college free agent (Kyle Love).
Ever-resourceful head coach Bill Belichick has utilized avenues even more unusual in a season-long effort to find the correct combination. Reserve receiver and primary punt returner Julian Edelman saw over 25 snaps as a nickel back against Baltimore after Arrington exited with an eye problem. Matthew Slater, also a wide receiver by trade, started three times at safety earlier in the year when a wave of injuries ravaged the secondary's back end.
While that ability to plug holes with scrap-heap talent speaks to the savvy and evaluation skills of Belichick and player personnel director Nick Caserio, New England's reliance on castoffs and obscure players hasn't exactly been by design. Season-ending injuries to regulars such as veteran end Andre Carter, promising rookie corner Ras-I Dowling and safety Josh Barrett have greatly tested the defense's depth, and despite the Patriots' reputation for superb drafts, the team has had a considerable amount of misses on the defensive side in recent years.
New England selected seven defensive players in the first three rounds of the two drafts that followed the franchise's last Super Bowl appearance, the memorable 17-14 loss to the New York Giants in Arizona during the 2007 season. The Pats did hit a home run with linebacker Jerod Mayo, a 2008 first-round choice and one of the group's linchpins, and safety Patrick Chung has developed into a reliable contributor since being tabbed in the second round the subsequent year. However, cornerbacks Terrence Wheatley (2nd Round, 2008) and Darius Butler (2nd Round, 2009), linebackers Shawn Crable (3rd Round, 2008) and Tyrone McKenzie (3rd Round, 2009) and lineman Ron Brace (2nd Round, 2009) never panned out, and Brace is the only one of those five that currently remains with the organization.
With all the shuffling and uncertainty, it's not surprising that the patchwork defense struggled for a large portion of 2011, with the Patriots surrendering club worsts for total yards (6,577) and passing yards (4,703) allowed in a season and finishing next-to-last in the NFL in both categories. Opponents eclipsed the 400-yard barrier in nine of New England's 16 regular-season contests.
The performance has been markedly better down the stretch, however, and particularly so during the playoffs. The Patriots yielded a season-low 252 total yards in their 45-10 shellacking of unexpected AFC West winner Denver in the Divisional Round, and the defense continually stood tall at important times in the hard-fought victory over Baltimore, holding the Ravens to only one touchdown in four red-zone visits on the afternoon.
"We've had a lot of things that haven't been perfect out there, but we have everybody that will stand in there and fight and give it their best all the way through, and that's a good place to be and that's what I like about this team," Belichick remarked after the AFC Championship. "They're tough, they're competitive and they really don't lose their confidence or get down on themselves. They just go out there and keep competing and see what happens."
Another example of that resiliency, not to mention Belichick's knack for maximizing the available talent, came after Carter -- an esteemed leader who had racked up 10 sacks through the first 14 games -- tore his quadriceps in a mid-December triumph at Denver. Presumed to be a devastating blow to the pass rush, the Patriots have instead generated an impressive 15 sacks in the four games since he went down.
"This team is [a bunch of] warriors," said longtime tackle Vince Wilfork, who's amassed 3 1/2 sacks over that time frame. "They're a bunch of fighters, coaches and everybody. This whole organization is just a special group of guys and I love playing for guys like this."
Below is a capsule look at the defense of the New England Patriots, with regular season statistics in parentheses:
Defensive Line: After employing a four-man front for most of the season, in large part to play to the strengths of Carter and underachieving and since- released tackle Albert Haynesworth, Belichick switched back to the 3-4 alignment the Patriots have traditionally used under his tutelage shortly before the team's playoff march. Wilfork (52 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 INT), the lone defender on the active roster who was present for the Super Bowl XLII setback to the Giants, has flourished with the scheme change and put forth a monster outing in the AFC Championship, in which the four-time Pro Bowl honoree made six tackles, one sack and three stops for losses. Love (33 tackles, 3 sacks) and Deaderick (17 tackles, 2 sacks) are both sound run-stoppers that work in a rotation with veterans Gerard Warren (12 tackles, 1 sack) and Shaun Ellis (14 tackles, 1 sack), who'll be playing in his first Super Bowl in a 12- year career spend predominantly with the rival New York Jets.
Inside Linebackers: The presence of Mayo (95 tackles, 1 sack, 2 INT), one of the league's more active and instinctive linebackers, and second-year thumper Brandon Spikes (47 tackles) makes this area probably New England's greatest strength on defense. Spikes missed eight games with a knee injury before returning to action for the regular-season finale, and it's not a coincidence that the Pats were tougher against the run after he came back. The 24-year-old also had a big day in the conference title game, registering a team-best nine tackles and coming up with a key fourth-quarter interception.
Outside Linebackers: While Carter turned out to be New England's best offseason acquisition, the addition of ex-Texan Mark Anderson (29 tackles, 10 sacks) was a very astute pickup as well. The pass-rushing specialist came through with 10 sacks during the regular season and one more in the playoffs, while his ability to create pressure from both a standup linebacker or a down end allows Belichick to give the opposition a variance of looks. The same can be said about Ninkovich (74 tackles, 2 INT), who established a career high with 6 1/2 sacks in addition to holding up very well in run support.
Cornerbacks: Though the Patriots permitted 293.9 passing yards per game prior to the playoffs, that concerning total was offset by the 23 interceptions the team produced, tied for second-most in the NFL. Nearly one-third of those picks came from Arrington (88 tackles, 7 INT, 13 PD), who emerged as New England's steadiest cornerback in his second year as a starter, while counterpart Devin McCourty (87 tackles, 2 INT, 12 PD) garnered seven interceptions of his own during a stellar rookie campaign in 2010 before having his play drop off in a sophomore slump. Finding a capable nickel back after Dowling's year-ending hip injury in September had been a season-long chore, but the play of Moore (7 tackles, 2 INT) since being inserted into that role may have finally resolved that issue.
Safeties: Here's another position group that's been a mess for New England for much of this season but has shown signs of progress as of late. One reason for that improvement has been the return of the hard-hitting Chung (62 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) from a sprained foot that kept him out much of the second half, with a desperate Belichick forced to audition several candidates without much success in the wake of the injury. Ihedigbo (69 tackles), signed away from the Jets back in August, is a strong tackler but isn't considered an asset in coverage, with McCourty recently having seen time on the back end on obvious passing downs to help bolster the overall pass defense.
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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC Betting Odds | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Big East Betting Odds | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Big Ten Betting Odds | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Big 12 Betting Odds | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Pac-10 Betting Odds | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC Betting Odds | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC Betting Odds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MWC Betting Odds | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 28 | 5 | 25 |
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
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