Bucks and Bulls clash in the Second City

Basketball Betting Lines

02/22/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Reigning NBA MVP Derrick Rose recently made his return to the hardwood following a five-game absence due to lower back spasms.

Rose and the Bulls will try to give the Central Division-rival Milwaukee Bucks a few spasms Wednesday, when the two teams collide tonight at the United Center. Rose had missed the previous five games (3-2) and delivered 23 points, six assists and five rebounds during Monday's 90-70 win over Atlanta.

"He brings a lot of confidence with him, he puts so much pressure on opposing teams and players that it opens up things for everybody," Bulls guard Ronnie Brewer said of Rose.

Carlos Boozer and Brewer scored 16 and 13 points, respectively, for the Bulls, who are 7-3 without Rose this season and have won eight of their last 10 games. Joakim Noah had five points and a game-high 16 rebounds, as Chicago improved to 3-1 on a six-game homestand and 12-2 in the Windy City. Mike James and John Lucas III combined for 17 points in 26 minutes of play.

The Bulls will close out the homestand after the All-Star break versus New Orleans on Feb. 28. Guard C.J. Watson left in the third quarter of Saturday's loss to New Jersey after taking a blow to the head and did not play versus the Hawks. Watson filled in nicely for Rose and is questionable for tonight.

Milwaukee will play four of its next five games on the road and is 6-11 away from the Bradley Center this season.

The Bucks have lost eight of their last 11 games overall, including Monday's 93-90 loss versus the Orlando Magic in Brew City. Ryan Anderson buried a three-pointer with 18.1 seconds left to give Orlando the lead for good, while Brandon Jennings led the Bucks with 22 points and committed a big turnover late in the game. Ersan Ilyasova notched 15 points with 15 rebounds in defeat.

Larry Sanders finished with 13 points and 12 rebounds, and missed an easy layup in the paint in the closing moments of the game.

"We were probably one rebound away from winning the game," said Bucks head coach Scott Skiles, whose team has dropped six in a row at home. "We just couldn't get the rebound and Anderson drilled the shot."

Bucks forward Drew Gooden missed his third straight game with a wrist/knee ailment and is doubtful for tonight. He is averaging 12/7 points and 6.1 rebounds per game this season.

Milwaukee has lost the first two meetings with Chicago this season and will host the Bulls again on March 7. The Bulls have won six straight and nine of the past 12 meetings with the Bucks, who have lost three straight and 11 of their last 12 trips to the Second City.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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